It’s been a while since I’ve done a proper discussion on the current theatrical landscape, and what it looks like for me personally. With some news today, it seems like a good time to return to the conversation.
Today, Warner Bros. announced that, like they will be doing on Christmas Day with “Wonder Woman 1984,” their entire slate of 2021 movies will be releasing simultaneously in theatres and on HBOMAX for 31 days, presumably before the films go exclusively to HBOMAX and VOD. That means, for 2021, moviegoers will have the choice to see films like James Gunn’s “The Suicide Squad,” Lily Wachowski’s “The Matrix 4,” Adam Wingard’s “Godzilla vs. Kong,” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” either in theatres, or on HBOMAX, at the time of release. Earlier in the year, AMC and Universal set a precedent for a closing of the theatrical window with a 17-day exclusive run before Universal could release their films on VOD; in terms of major studio decisions, this is the mega gamechanger we’ve been waiting for.
There’s a lot to unpack in this announcement. In reality, Warner Bros. should have forced Christopher Nolan’s hand, and allowed this sort of release for “Tenet”. You have to think that this corporate decision on Warner Media’s part will mark the end of the studio’s long relationship with the filmmaker anyway; if they have had this in the realm of thinking since the summer, they honestly should have done it with “Tenet.” But their goal there was to try and resurrect the theatrical experience, and help theatres re-open; all they proved is that audiences, at least in the United States, were not, quite ready to venture out to theatres, despite all of the cleaning measures the exhibitors put in place. Some chains have stayed open, while others shut back down; this decision is not going to inspire them to re-open soon. We’ll come back to that.
A lot of people, in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, saw this more in terms of what it would mean for the theatrical experience, and yes, there is a lot to discuss in that respect, but this is more a coup for HBOMAX than anything. The streaming service has had a rough go of it to start, partially because of its US-only rollout, as well as the fact that it was unavailable on both Amazon Fire Stick (though it is now) and Roku at launch. No doubt this is going to increase its attractiveness for people who haven’t had it up to this point, especially since we are not sure how quickly a COVID-19 vaccine will be delivered, en masse. Warner will need it- they are leaving a LOT of box-office dollars on the table with this move (although they’re also likely going to be able to reduce their marketing budget, as well), and that ever-increasing amount they’re sinking into Zack Snyder’s “Justice League” project isn’t going to recoup itself. I will say personally, that HBOMAX is well worth the investment. Not only do you get all of the HBO content, but their movie selection might be the very best any streaming service has to offer, and yes, I say that as a Disney+ and The Criterion Channel subscriber, as well.
So, what does this mean for theatres, and “the theatrical experience?” I think writing the obituary for movie theatres in general is premature- some have found innovative ways of staying open during the pandemic, including pop-up drive-in experiences and virtual cinemas to benefit the smaller theatres. And drive-ins are back in vogue in general, and you know what? Good for them; I’m been to more drive-in screenings this year than at any other point in my life, and I’ve loved every minute of it. And once a vaccine is wide-spread, and movies begin to get released in theatres again, I do not doubt that people will start to return to the theatre- with such a lack of communal experiences this year, movies are the one that I think can reunite us the strongest, and in a relatively affordable manner. Some things are going to have to change, though, and many things inevitably will. I worry that many independent films will not find a home on the big screen outside of film festivals and independent theatres, but that’s less because of the pandemic, and more to do with the reversal in the past few years of the Paramount antitrust Supreme Court decision against “block booking” and studios owning movie theatres; if we see any major shifts in the theatrical experience of what’s available in theatres, I think this is going to be what led to it more than any elimination of the theatre-exclusive window. I think the major theatre chains will find themselves getting smaller, if not going bankrupt completely; AMC has been on fumes even before the pandemic, and though Regal/Cineworld recently found liquidity and debt relief that is allowing them to comfortably remain closed (supposedly) until March 2021, years of expansion and buying up other chains created bubbles that COVID is starting to burst. And if they do survive, they are going to have to do something about their pricing structure, and business practices (most especially, not refusing to show day-and-date releases anymore- the days of them being able to flex that muscle are gone), to stay solvent- they both have solid subscription programs in place in A-list and Regal Unlimited, but they were also pricing themselves out of competition even after the start of those programs, leading to some of the lowered attendance over the years. This is going to be a gut-check time for both, and everyone in the exhibition industry; how they react will determine whether they have a place in the new moviewatching landscape.
The picture I’m using for this post was taken outside of the movie theatre I worked at from November 2001 until September 2020, when it closed its doors for good; this picture of me is from the last day of operations. After a few days of helping to clean out everything from the theatre that needed cleaning out, I began work at another location, before that theatre was shut down, like about 60 other ones, before the company put everybody back on furlough later in the week. I’m still not sure if my future has me staying in the movie theatre business in 2021, but as long as some are still open, I don’t foresee myself abandoning the experience as a moviewatcher anytime soon.
Viva La Resistance!
Brian Skutle
www.sonic-cinema.com
